Poland and France have raised fresh alarms over Russia’s growing “hybrid” campaign in Europe, with Warsaw warning of possible drone and missile incidents on NATO soil and Paris ordering a new protection plan for critical infrastructure.
Poland’s warning: “Accidental” strikes that test NATO
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said intelligence points to Russia planning “hybrid-style” drone and missile strikesagainst countries backing Ukraine, including NATO members like Poland. According to Tusk, Moscow’s aim is to damage logistics and the economy supporting Ukraine while trying to weaken NATO’s resolve by creating ambiguous incidents on alliance territory.
He cautioned that Russia could portray any incursion or damage as “accidental”, making it harder for NATO to respond decisively. Tusk told parliament there is a “real risk” that drones or projectiles could enter eastern-flank airspace and even cause destruction, stressing that such moves are meant to probe whether Article 5—NATO’s mutual-defence clause—will actually be triggered.
France’s response: Shielding critical sites from drones and cyberattacks
In Paris, President Emmanuel Macron said the Russian hybrid threat facing Europe and France has intensified in recent weeks. He announced that he has asked the government to prepare a plan to protect critical infrastructure, including sensitive defence-industry and technology sites, from drone attacks and cyberattacks.
Macron framed the danger as part of a changing pattern of Russian aggression that relies on shadow operations below the threshold of open war—sabotage, cyber intrusions, disinformation, and airspace violations—rather than conventional invasion. French officials have cited a string of incidents, including drone flights near sensitive locations, cyberattacks, sabotage or arson attempts, and a drone attack on a train between Kyiv and Warsaw, as signs of mounting pressure.
Why the alarms now
Both capitals see the current moment as a critical phase of the war, where Russia may try to test NATO cohesion by engineering incidents that are difficult to attribute with certainty. The logic, as described by Polish and European officials, is to create fear and hesitation among allies without crossing a clear red line that would force a unified military response.
At the same time, European governments are moving to harden defences around key nodes—airports, energy facilities, defence factories, and transport links—because these are attractive targets for low-cost drones and disruptive cyber operations.
What comes next
Poland’s warning underscores the vulnerability of eastern-flank states that are geographically close to the fighting and host major logistics routes for aid to Ukraine. France’s infrastructure-protection drive reflects a broader European shift toward resilience: preparing for repeated, low-level shocks that can cumulatively erode security and public confidence.
For NATO, the challenge is to deter hybrid probing without overreacting to every ambiguous event, while still making clear that deliberate attacks on member states will carry consequences. For citizens, the takeaway is that Europe’s security debate is no longer only about frontlines in Ukraine, but also about protecting homes, hospitals, power grids and transport networks from a wider, less visible battlefield.
