OPEC has revised down its forecast for India oil demand growth in 2026 to 40,000 barrels per day, from 60,000 barrels per day projected in September. Despite the reduction, petrol and diesel are expected to remain the main drivers of India’s fuel consumption.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries made the revision in its latest Monthly Oil Market Report amid a weaker global demand outlook. OPEC has also lowered its forecast for worldwide oil demand growth in 2026 to about 400,000 barrels per day.
Petrol and diesel to support demand
OPEC expects India’s oil demand to average around 5.8 million barrels per day in 2026. The projected increase of 40,000 barrels per day is modest, but transport fuels are likely to keep consumption resilient.
Petrol demand is expected to be supported by strong passenger vehicle sales and greater road mobility. Diesel consumption should benefit from manufacturing activity, agricultural operations and freight movement across the country.
Why OPEC lowered the estimate
The downgrade reflects OPEC’s more cautious view of global oil demand. The producer group has repeatedly cut its 2026 global demand growth forecast as geopolitical tensions and market uncertainty affect energy consumption expectations.
For India, the revised forecast indicates that oil demand will still rise, but at a slower pace than earlier expected. India remains an important growth market for global oil because of its expanding vehicle fleet, industrial activity and large population.
What it means for India
India is the world’s third-largest oil consumer, and its fuel demand is closely linked to transport, construction, agriculture and manufacturing. Diesel remains particularly important for trucks, tractors, generators and industrial operations, while petrol demand follows passenger vehicle usage.marketexpress+1
A slower demand-growth estimate does not necessarily mean falling consumption. It suggests that the increase in 2026 will be smaller than OPEC had earlier anticipated.
Key takeaways
- OPEC now expects India’s oil demand to grow by 40,000 barrels per day in 2026, down from 60,000 barrels per day.
- Petrol and diesel will remain the largest contributors to fuel consumption.
- Strong vehicle sales, manufacturing and agriculture continue to support underlying demand.
- India’s total oil demand is projected at about 5.8 million barrels per day in 2026.
- The revision comes as OPEC lowers its global oil demand growth outlook for 2026.
India’s oil demand story remains positive, but OPEC’s latest forecast points to a more measured expansion in 2026, led primarily by road transport and industrial fuel use.
