Most major exit polls for the 2026 assembly elections in West Bengal, Assam, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Puducherry point to a clear BJP‑NDA edge in Bengal and Assam, a likely Congress‑led UDF comeback in Kerala, and a fragmented but NDA‑leaning verdict in Puducherry. Tamil Nadu, in contrast, throws up the most divided picture, with projections split between the DMK‑Congress combine and the AIADMK–BJP camp.
West Bengal: BJP in Clear Lead
Across multiple exit‑poll “poll‑of‑polls,” BJP‑NDA is projected as the single largest bloc in West Bengal, though the exact seat range varies. Several surveys place the BJP‑NDA alliance in the 138–175‑seat band in the 294‑member Assembly, while the Trinamool Congress (TMC) is generally projected between about 99 and 152 seats. This suggests that BJP‑led alliances could either clear a majority on their own or at least finish well ahead of TMC in seat count.
One long‑term tracker, however, still projects TMC in the 177–187‑seat range, with BJP‑NDA at 95–110, which is significantly more optimistic for Mamata Banerjee than the dominant trend. This divergence underscores that while the overall narrative favours BJP, the final outcome in Bengal will hinge on how closely the actual vote shares track the most recent pre‑polls.
Assam: BJP Poised to Retain Power
In Assam, most exit‑polls agree that the BJP‑led NDA will retain power with a comfortable majority. Multiple surveys peg BJP‑NDA between about 88–101 seats in the 126‑seat Assembly, comfortably above the 63‑seat halfway mark. The Congress‑led opposition is generally projected in the low‑ to mid‑20s, with some models showing them in the 25–28 range.
Even more conservative trackers place BJP‑NDA around 76–80 seats, still majority‑plus, while Congress‑led allies hover in the 35–41 range. The consistent theme across these exit polls is continuity in government, with Himanta Biswa Sarma’s BJP remaining the dominant force in the state.
Tamil Nadu: Split Projections, DMK in Slight Lead Overall
Tamil Nadu’s exit‑polls for 2026 are the most divergent. Many “poll‑of‑polls” aggregations nudge slightly towards the DMK‑Congress‑led alliance (SPA), placing them in the 112–129‑seat band in the 234‑member House, above the 117‑seat majority mark. AIADMK–BJP‑NDA is projected in the 86–103‑seat range, short of a clear majority.
At the same time, at least one prominent tracker (such as a JVC‑branded poll highlighted by major networks) projects AIADMK–BJP‑NDA in roughly 127–148 seats, suggesting a strong comeback for the old alliance. This split in projections means that observers will have to wait for the actual counting to see whether the anti‑incumbency narrative in favour of AIADMK–BJP or the DMK‑Congress‑led combine prevails.
Kerala: UDF Likely to Regain Power
In Kerala, most exit polls foresee a Congress‑led UDF reclaiming power after 10 years. Several trackers place UDF in the 19–26‑seat band, often with a projected single‑seat lead over the Left‑led LDF, which is seen in the 24–31 range in the 140‑member Assembly. The overall story is one of a “swing‑back” to the Congress‑led front, with the Left‑LDF losing its comfortable majority.
The BJP‑NDA, meanwhile, is projected to inch up modestly to around 2–3 seats, far short of forming an alternative but indicating a slow but steady consolidation of its base. The coming verdict is expected to restore the traditional bipolar pattern dominated by UDF and LDF, with BJP as a minor but visible third player.
Puducherry: NDA Poised to Retain
Puducherry exit‑polls for 2026 broadly suggest that the BJP‑led NDA, anchored by the AINRC–BJP combine, will retain power. Several surveys place the NDA alliance in the 16–20‑seat band in the 30‑member House, comfortably above the 15‑seat majority mark. The Congress‑led opposition is generally projected between 6–13 seats, depending on the model.
Smaller parties and independents are seen in the 0–7‑seat range, which keeps the overall arithmetic in favour of an NDA‑led government. The narrative is that the Maohua‑led BJP‑AINRC front has managed to consolidate its support base, while the Congress‑led opposition remains fragmented.
