India’s economy is on track to grow at 7.6% in FY26 (2025–26) under the new GDP series, according to the latest official data. The revised methodology, based on the new base year 2022–23, shows a slightly higher growth outlook than earlier estimates under the old base (2011–12). The third‑quarter growth for FY26, covering October–December 2025, came in at 7.8%, signaling strong performance despite the data‑series revamp.
What the new GDP series shows
Under the updated GDP framework, real GDP growth for FY26 is now projected at 7.6%, up from about 7.1–7.4% in the earlier series. This revision reflects broader coverage of the informal sector, improved data on services, and a more granular base‑year structure. The new series also lifts growth estimates for earlier years, giving the economy a more consistent upward trend over the past three fiscals.
Quarter‑wise revisions in growth
Quarterly numbers have been recalculated under the new base, with both upward and downward adjustments:
- Q3 (Oct–Dec 2025): Growth at 7.8% under the new series, higher than the earlier print of 7.4%.
- Q2 (Jul–Sep 2025): Revised up to 8.4% from 8.2% in the old series.
- Q1 (Apr–Jun 2025): Revised down to 6.7% from 7.8% earlier.
These changes show that the economy started FY26 at a more moderate pace, picked up strongly in the middle of the year, and continued to expand at a healthy clip in the December quarter.
Why growth numbers changed
The shift from the 2011–12 base to 2022–23 is not just cosmetic; it brings in better and more recent data sources such as GST, UDYAM, and e‑invoice data, especially for small businesses and services. The new methodology also tightens coverage of the informal sector and improves sectoral alignment with current economic activities. Together, these updates make the GDP series more reflective of India’s actual economic structure and performance.
What it means for the economy
A projected 7.6% GDP growth in FY26 with 7.8% in Q3 suggests that India remains one of the fastest‑growing large economies in the world. The revised data under the new series also removes some earlier inconsistencies and gives a clearer picture of how the economy has evolved over the past three years. For policymakers, businesses, and investors, the updated numbers provide a more reliable baseline for planning and forecasting.
In short, India’s GDP growth at 7.6% in FY26 and 7.8% in the third quarter under the new series reflects a robust, data‑backed acceleration, supported by stronger manufacturing and services performance.
